I have renamed this virus to the Wolf Virus. Why? Because it is killing the elderly, sick, wounded, and occasional young victim. This is very much like the wolf does with the mammals that live within their territory. When we look at the population of elk or deer in a territorial area of wolves, this has been found to be healthy for the herd. There are more elderly, sick, and wounded humans on earth than any other period in human history. My whole life I have heard about survival of the fittest being a good thing. I think we are all going to get this virus before it is all said and done. Too many people are asymptomatic and pretty much only humans with comorbidities are dying.
According to the available data (see below), the flu kills fewer people worldwide than AIDS, suicide, and malaria. Covid-19 has killed less than the flu, however, reporting is suspected to be a magnitude or more fewer deaths than actually reported. Assuming the death rate is 2 times the reported amount, then Covid-19 would be killing about the same number of people worldwide as the flu.
Looking at the data from the US which is probably more accurate than world data, Covid-19 has killed right up there with Alzheimer’s and diabetes but has killed 2 times more than the flu. Assuming a large number of non-Covid-19 deaths were reported as Covid-19 deaths and reducing the reported number by 50% makes Covid-19 at least as lethal as the flu.
Therefore, I am postulating that Covid-19 is at least as lethal as the flu and probably more. If that is the case and Covid-19 does not go away, we could have 60,000 people dying from the flu and 60,000+ people dying from Covid-19 each year (120,000+ dead / year). That would put us on par with deaths from cardiovascular diseases, Alzheimer’s, and diabetes. Not worth destroying the world economy over. I think there is also a strong possibility, assuming the population takes the necessary precautions, that cases of both Covid-19, the flu, and probably the cold will be significantly less than expected by as much as 75% because of all of the precautions that have been put in place about the spread of these type of viruses. That would put the 2021 death toll at around 30,000 or less. That would put us below a .015% /yr death rate and would be less than all the other causes of death on my list. However, I also believe we are all going to get this before it is all said and done. The whole purpose of the quarantine was to not overload the hospitals. It appears that has been accomplished. There are concoctions that might save most of those who get deathly ill. By 2021 there will more than likely be a vaccine or better yet an neutralising antibodies drug that has a protein that would prevent Covid-19 from attaching itself to a cell altogether. Unfortunately, I think this current breakout is merely preparing us for the true pandemic to come. Imagine if this virus were killing 10% or more of the population instead of a death rate of less than .03%. If the population and government do not take heed of using the few protections we know stops the spread of this disease, people will be dying at increased rates well into 2021 and until an appropriate number of people have been vaccinated.
Lastly, almost all of these viruses that inflict humanity are transmitted in the same way, most attack your respiratory system in one way or another, and most have many if not the same symptoms. Therefore, tracking and classifying each disease accurately is challenging. The resulting numbers may not be as accurate as desirable. However, I believe the numbers from the US are probably several orders of magnitude more accurate than those from the rest of the world. All of the numbers presented in this analysis are as close to being accurate as possible meaning I derived them from more than one source when available. I am not looking for accuracy here but am using approximations to understand how death from viral diseases compared to death from other circumstances that kill people.
Viruses are neither dead or alive. They do not eat and most cannot reproduce on their own (RNA viruses). First seen as poisons, then as life-forms, then biological chemicals, viruses today are thought of as being in a gray area between living and nonliving: they cannot replicate on their own but can do so in truly living cells and can also affect the behavior of their hosts profoundly.
Further research by Stanley and others established that a virus consists of nucleic acids (DNA or RNA) enclosed in a protein coat that may also shelter viral proteins involved in infection. By that description, a virus seems more like a chemistry set than an organism. But when a virus enters a cell (called a host after infection), it is far from inactive. It sheds its coat, bares its genes and induces the cell’s own replication machinery to reproduce the intruder’s DNA or RNA and manufacture more viral protein based on the instructions in the viral nucleic acid. The newly created viral bits assemble and, voilà, more virus arises, which also may infect other cells.
These behaviors are what led many to think of viruses as existing at the border between chemistry and life. Virologists claim their dependence on host cells, viruses lead “a kind of borrowed life.” Interestingly, even though biologists long favored the view that viruses were mere boxes of chemicals, they took advantage of viral activity in host cells to determine how nucleic acids code for proteins: indeed, modern molecular biology rests on a foundation of information gained through viruses.
Bottom line, viruses depend on the host cell for the raw materials and energy necessary for nucleic acid synthesis, protein synthesis, processing and transport, and all other biochemical activities that allow the virus to multiply and spread. One might then conclude that even though these processes come under viral direction, viruses are simply nonliving parasites of living metabolic systems.
I have never seen, nor do I want to see, a zombie apocalypse movie but it is my understanding that the zombies came from a vaccine that was designed to combat a virus and the vaccine turned some into zombies. Now go to the link and see if someone may have read this before coming up with the zombie movies.
Like other RNA viruses, the enzyme that copies a single-strand RNA is probably very sloppy. Replication can leave mistakes called mutations in every new copy. Sometimes the genetic mutation will be so drastic that the progeny viruses cannot survive while other times the genetic mutation will become the start of new strains. Therefore, I believe this virus will mutate rapidly and become more contagious and lethal to humans over time. About the time a vaccine becomes available and distribution begins, the virus will have mutated to the point that the vaccine will have limited to no affect and people will continue to need hospitalization and people will continue to die. There may be no escaping this virus. I have been saying all along, we are all going to get this shit sooner or later. It’s a crap shoot. Those who are unfortunate and are affected harshly from this disease will have life altering issues including not making it. The remaining world population will move on eventually becoming immune for whatever reason, probably some sort of heard immunity. Mankind will face a new foe at some point in the future because someone somewhere will continue experimenting with these viruses and other biological genetic things without proper safeguards and someone is going to accidentally get sick somewhere in the world and off we will go again. This pandemic will teach us nothing and everyone will forget how quickly the entire world can be affected by a scourge we cannot see.
|World Population||7.594 B||7.796 B||8.506 B|
|Deaths||56.824 M||60 M||70 M|
|Births||141 M||141 M||141 M|
|Growth||84.176 M||81 M||71 M|
|More Births Than Deaths||2.5||2.4||2.0|
|More Births Than Deaths||2.5||2.4||2.0|
|Date Noted or In 2018||% Of World Population Past Total & Present per Year|
|Plague of Jestinian 541 - 542||100,000,000||48.5% tot|
|Black Plague 1346 - 1350||50,000,000||11.3% tot|
|World War II 1939 to 1945||60,000,000+||3.0% tot|
|H1N1 1918 Spanish Flu||40,000,000+||2.7% tot|
|Modern Plague 1894 - 1903||10,000,000||.6% tot|
|Cardiovascular Diseases||17,800,000||.234% = .00234/yr|
|Korean War 1950 to 1953||5,000,000||.19% tot|
|Covid-19 - 20/21
Using US Death %
|6th Cholera Pandemic 1889 - 1923||1,500,000||.115% tot|
|N2H2 Asian Flu 1957||2,000,000||.07% tot|
|Indonesian Tsunami 2004||227,898||.07% tot|
|Russian Flu 1889 - 1890||1,000,000||.057% tot|
|Respiratory Diseases||3,910,000||.051% /yr|
|Vietnam War 1955 to 1975||1,353,000||.04% tot|
|Covid-19 - 20/21
Reported but likely way low
|Lower Respiratory Infections||2,560,000||.034% /yr|
|Digestive Diseases||2,380,000||.031% /yr|
|Hong Kong Flu N3H2 1968||1,000,000||.029% tot|
|Neonatal Disorders||1,780,000||.023% /yr|
|Diarrheal Diseases||1,570,000||.021% /yr|
|5th Cholera Pandemic||982,000||.020% tot|
|Liver Diseases||1,320,000||.017% /yr|
|Road Injuries||1,240,000||.016% /yr|
|Kidney Disease||1,230,000||.016% /yr|
|Parkinson Disease||340,639||.004% /yr|
|Nutritional Deficiencies||269,997||.004% /yr|
|Maternal Disorders||193,639||.003% /yr|
|Alcohol Use Disorders||184,934||.002% /yr|
|Drug Use Disorders||166,613||.002% /yr|
|Hot and Cold Exposure||53,350||.001% /yr|
|Natural Disasters||9,603||.000% /yr|
OK - I get it! The world data is probably off and often an educated guess. So, I am going to look at the numbers from the USA which are probably most accurate - not perfect - but way more accurate.
|More Births Than Deaths||1.4||1.4|
|Deaths||Date Noted or In 2019||% Of US Population Past Total & Present per Year|
|Civil War - US - 1861 to 1865||618,222||2.0% tot|
|H1N1 Spanish Flu - US - 1918||600,000+||.6% tot|
|World War II - US - 1939 to 1945||419,400||.3% tot|
|Vietnam War - US - 1955 to 1975||444,000||.232% tot|
|Heart Disease||655,381||.2% =0.002/yr|
|Covid-19 - US - 20/21||600,000||0.182% /tot|
|OxyContin Overdoses - Purdue Pharma fined 8 Billion in 2020||400,000+||.13% /tot|
|Accidents/Unintentional Injuries||167,127||.051% /yr|
|H3N2 Hong Kong Flu - US - 1968||100,000||.05% tot|
|Chronic Lower Respiratory Diseases||159,486||.048% /yr|
|Cardiovascular Diseases||147,810||.045% /yr|
|H2N2 Asian Flu - US -1957||70,000||.04% tot|
|Alzheimer Disease||122,019||.037% /yr|
|Korean War - US - 1950 to 1953||33,686||.023% tot|
|Flu and Pneumonia||59,120||.018% /yr|
|Kidney Disease||51,386||.016% /yr|
|Thought Eradicated USA||H
|Can the vaccine give you the desease|
|Covid-19||2020||Y||China = Y
US = N*